Been a while since I've really blogged about baseball, but let's start shaking off the rust shall we?
Today was the first of two (possibly even three) fantasy baseball team drafts. I'll set this up in a TL;DR format for you all: Got invited into a 10 man dynasty league, didn't want to accept, finally accepted last minute, drafted a solid team.
My keepers coming into the year were about as strong offensively as one could want: Evan Longoria, Troy Tulowitzki, and Jose Reyes. This is of course with a gigantic injury asterisk next to it all. By June I could be fishing for draft picks next year if any (or god forbid all three) do significant time on the DL.
Adding to that core from the #8 draft slot I managed to miss out on some fantastic potential keepers (Harper, Stanton, and Posey namely) and still snagged Jason Heyward and Jay Bruce with my first two picks. Heyward's power and speed combo wasn't on full display in 2012, but it was a gigantic step forward from his disastrous 2011 season and I suspect his best is yet to come. Bruce, on the otherhand, made for a cheaper power grab since Stanton and Bautista were off the board. The price is high, but in a four-OF league he was far too tempting to pass up, especially if his AVG gets back up to the .270 range.
With the core of the offense fully locked in I decided to take a chance on some youngsters elsewhere. ZiPS is extremely high on Anthony Rizzo coming the year and I grabbed about five spots after Goldschmidt went off the board. 2B is usually a clusterfuck if one of the top-options isn't available, but thankfully I had the foresight to grab Jason Kipnis to handle keystone duties. His summer was undone by an awful August, but he's a legit 20/25 threat in that improved Indians lineup.
Other miscellaneous offensive pieces include the Montero's (Miguel and Jesus) at C, Lance Berkman and Brandon Belt holding down back-up 1B and UTIL duties, and solid role players in Hunter Pence and Dexter Fowler.
Having used an adapted LIMA strategy previously, I decided to try something similar again. This time instead of waiting and drafting bargain pitchers, I took seven starters that should average 200 innings each and grabbed five relievers who won't A.) bomb my ratios, B.) potential for K's and C.) could all get a shot to close if the door opens. The potential of injury is there (Huston Street), but the upside is as well (Bobby Parnell). Other options include David Hernandez, Ernesto Frieri, and Sean Marshall.
My starting staff is based off: Mat Latos, Adam Wainwright, James Shields, Brandon Morrow, Hiroki Kuroda, C.J. Wilson, and Derek Holland. Not a true LIMA "staff", but one that should do the trick.
This team should post strong numbers, not really hurt my team across the board and should contend for a title this year for sure. Especially if someone like Fowler can get scorching hot and increase his trade value.
Sunday, March 24, 2013
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
August 8, 2012
 |
| Yankees in first place, they don't look surprised. |
To say The Evil Empire's transformation simply worked would be an understatement. Try thrived instead.
The same team that was tied for dead-last early in the season, has roared all the way to the top of the AL Division and the MoneyBall league. Here we are on August 8th, and I have my division completely wrapped up, barring a complete collapse, which doesn't look likely to happen. Sitting with an impressive 118-74-12 record, having won six straight match-ups, and going 11-of-12.
To make matters better I'm making a charge towards pulling away from the top-two teams in the NL Division; Ian Law and Alexander Downs, who have complete control of the "Senior Circuit."
The team has a different appeal to it. As the season has progressed it's taken on a more active and true "Mallow style" offensive juggernaut with the starting pitching to match it and a bullpen that racks up mucho K's (Frieri, Robertson, Clippard). This style is ultimately what I hope to achieve.
In the all-star bonus Week 15 my team racked up: 64R - 21HR - 51RBI - 12SB - .398OBP - .613SLG - 4W - 3SV- 89K - 10.87K/9. Just two pieces are gone from that team: Alfonso Soriano and Jason Grilli, so the core of it is still playing at a high level.
It's built to perfectly blend power and speed. My OF is abso-fucking-lutely insane for my playoff charge: Trout, McCutcheon, Stubbs, Crawford, Bonifacio. The biggest question mark is whether it's even going to pay off to keep A-Rod on board. Hopefully so, because my schedule is going to line up with two easy teams to finish the regular season, and I'll have a first round bye to get him acclimated before the semifinals begin.
Having the possible AL and NL MVP winners (Trout and McCutcheon) is really the motor that drives the team into overdrive, and trust me, it has been OVERDRIVE.
Oh, and some sweet unrelated news: I'm the associate editor for DobberBaseball so check out the great things going on over there with me behind the helm.
Monday, June 4, 2012
It's Been A While...
Let me catch anyone reading this up on my 2012 fantasy baseball season.
(Editors Note: This could be a TL;DR post so bear with me.)
Having lost my league title last season to my good buddy Alex Savage, and finishing second, I knew it would be important to jump back into the draft as our league is expanding from 12 to 14 teams. There are 6 new managers this year, combining our league and managers from our football money league into one. It's certainly looking more like an "experts league," although you'd be hard-pressed to find any of us calling our skills expert-ish.
Anyways, I came away from the draft feeling great about my team and the potential it had, expecially among the top-tier talent I nabbed. But after the first five weeks and a 24-32-2 start, things had to change or I would be going nowhere.
I moved my team toward a more LIMA-friendly strategy given the strength in numbers of middle-relief on our league's waiver wire. Gone were guys like Brian Wilson, Jurrjens, Thornton, Aybar, Reynolds, Morneau, and Liriano (never again) and in came guys like Trout, Goldschmidt, Frieri, Robertson, Casilla, Escobar, and Kubel. Add to that a trade of WW pickup Jason Vargas who netted me Edwin Jackson, and I'll take that upgrade for sure.
In the five weeks since that lackluster start I've compiled a 33-11-2 record, to vault me from a tie for dead-last into fifth place and right in the thick of the race for the American League first-round bye. Not too shabby of a turnaround, but it's leaving me hungry for more success.
Our league uses a 6x6 scoring format. R/HR/RBI/SB/OBP/SLG and W/SV/K/ERA/WHIP/K-9. I've slowly geared my team toward that of an actual MLB roster with a starting five and a great bullpen, as you will see below:
Then in the pen:
If you know these players, they're all geared toward dominating K's and K/9 with put-away pitches (sans Cueto, Jackson, and Casilla), but they all post fantastic ratios. I've been methodically taking pitching stats with a Quality > Quantity style, and it's working wonderfully. I used a more Quantity > Quality method in the two years prior, both resulting in championship appearances (one of them a victory). I'm a little shocked nobody else has adopted this strategy (perhaps that's a harbinger that it won't work for me), but it makes me relieved that I can constantly replace RP's without much penalty.
Hitting stats are something I still haven't totally recovered from the early season droughts. Carl Crawford, who I drafted in the 7th round, didn't recover as fast as I hoped (expected a May return, still waiting). A-Rod (4th), McCann (5th), McCutcheon (2nd), and A-Gonz (1st) all labored through April and while McCutcheon and Rodriguez have recovered I'm still waiting for Gonzalez and McCann to find their swings.
The Waiver Wire has been kind to The Evil Empire though. Lost in the shuffle of Bryce Harper's call-up was that of the "other" mega-prospect Mike Trout, who's trial with TEE last season was not good. Trout's addition, along with Kubel, Escobar, and Luke Scott has stabilized the team from it's terrible start and it's now just beginning to click.
I've been hot after a 1B and SS in trade talks, but nobody has bitten yet. If Goldschmidt rakes like many predicted him to in the preseason, that might take care of the 1B slot I've been looking for and allow me to shop A-Gonz for an elite SS to set my team over the edge. If not, I keep him around and have an OF that looks like: McCutcheon, Trout, A-Gonz, Crawford, with Kubel and Scott as expendable trade bait.
At any rate, The Evil Empire is a team on the rise in the MoneyBall league and true to Billy Beane's strategy of using sabermetrics to win, I'm gonna do precisely that. Oh and hopefully update this blog more often.
(Editors Note: This could be a TL;DR post so bear with me.)
Having lost my league title last season to my good buddy Alex Savage, and finishing second, I knew it would be important to jump back into the draft as our league is expanding from 12 to 14 teams. There are 6 new managers this year, combining our league and managers from our football money league into one. It's certainly looking more like an "experts league," although you'd be hard-pressed to find any of us calling our skills expert-ish.
Anyways, I came away from the draft feeling great about my team and the potential it had, expecially among the top-tier talent I nabbed. But after the first five weeks and a 24-32-2 start, things had to change or I would be going nowhere.
I moved my team toward a more LIMA-friendly strategy given the strength in numbers of middle-relief on our league's waiver wire. Gone were guys like Brian Wilson, Jurrjens, Thornton, Aybar, Reynolds, Morneau, and Liriano (never again) and in came guys like Trout, Goldschmidt, Frieri, Robertson, Casilla, Escobar, and Kubel. Add to that a trade of WW pickup Jason Vargas who netted me Edwin Jackson, and I'll take that upgrade for sure.
In the five weeks since that lackluster start I've compiled a 33-11-2 record, to vault me from a tie for dead-last into fifth place and right in the thick of the race for the American League first-round bye. Not too shabby of a turnaround, but it's leaving me hungry for more success.
Our league uses a 6x6 scoring format. R/HR/RBI/SB/OBP/SLG and W/SV/K/ERA/WHIP/K-9. I've slowly geared my team toward that of an actual MLB roster with a starting five and a great bullpen, as you will see below:
- Zack Greinke
- Gio Gonzalez
- C.J. Wilson
- Edwin Jackson
- Johnny Cueto
Then in the pen:
- Tyler Clippard
- Ernesto Frieri
- Santiago Casilla
- Vinnie Pestano
- David Robertson (DL)
If you know these players, they're all geared toward dominating K's and K/9 with put-away pitches (sans Cueto, Jackson, and Casilla), but they all post fantastic ratios. I've been methodically taking pitching stats with a Quality > Quantity style, and it's working wonderfully. I used a more Quantity > Quality method in the two years prior, both resulting in championship appearances (one of them a victory). I'm a little shocked nobody else has adopted this strategy (perhaps that's a harbinger that it won't work for me), but it makes me relieved that I can constantly replace RP's without much penalty.
Hitting stats are something I still haven't totally recovered from the early season droughts. Carl Crawford, who I drafted in the 7th round, didn't recover as fast as I hoped (expected a May return, still waiting). A-Rod (4th), McCann (5th), McCutcheon (2nd), and A-Gonz (1st) all labored through April and while McCutcheon and Rodriguez have recovered I'm still waiting for Gonzalez and McCann to find their swings.
The Waiver Wire has been kind to The Evil Empire though. Lost in the shuffle of Bryce Harper's call-up was that of the "other" mega-prospect Mike Trout, who's trial with TEE last season was not good. Trout's addition, along with Kubel, Escobar, and Luke Scott has stabilized the team from it's terrible start and it's now just beginning to click.
I've been hot after a 1B and SS in trade talks, but nobody has bitten yet. If Goldschmidt rakes like many predicted him to in the preseason, that might take care of the 1B slot I've been looking for and allow me to shop A-Gonz for an elite SS to set my team over the edge. If not, I keep him around and have an OF that looks like: McCutcheon, Trout, A-Gonz, Crawford, with Kubel and Scott as expendable trade bait.
At any rate, The Evil Empire is a team on the rise in the MoneyBall league and true to Billy Beane's strategy of using sabermetrics to win, I'm gonna do precisely that. Oh and hopefully update this blog more often.
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Dear Desmond
I’m sorry to do this to you directly out of the blue. Knocking on your door in the middle of the night like a worthless schmuck hoping you’ll take me back. It feels like a scene from a John Cusack movie.
I should never have dumped you like I did. I guess having Tulowitzki made it seem like any other shortstop options were expendable, especially after the one-man show he put up last September.
But here I am, on my knees begging for your forgiveness. Ian Desmond, I am a fan. I want you to be a part of my repeat Championship run. You’ve got excellent skills, and I was a bit jealous to see them on display with Savage’s team after I tossed you aimlessly to the Waiver Wire for more immediate needs.
I get it. You wanted to spurn your former owner. That’s sensible, and I’m cool with it. Now it’s time to join forces for the greater good. Nobody wants to see Downs’ team advance especially over me and together we can make it happen.
Tulo’s injury is worrisome, but if it costs him his season, I’m willing to commit to you for the long haul. Let’s do this Ian.
Allow me this time to offer you an arms-extended welcome back to The Evil Empire.
We’ve got work to do.
+
I should never have dumped you like I did. I guess having Tulowitzki made it seem like any other shortstop options were expendable, especially after the one-man show he put up last September.
But here I am, on my knees begging for your forgiveness. Ian Desmond, I am a fan. I want you to be a part of my repeat Championship run. You’ve got excellent skills, and I was a bit jealous to see them on display with Savage’s team after I tossed you aimlessly to the Waiver Wire for more immediate needs.
I get it. You wanted to spurn your former owner. That’s sensible, and I’m cool with it. Now it’s time to join forces for the greater good. Nobody wants to see Downs’ team advance especially over me and together we can make it happen.
Tulo’s injury is worrisome, but if it costs him his season, I’m willing to commit to you for the long haul. Let’s do this Ian.
Allow me this time to offer you an arms-extended welcome back to The Evil Empire.
We’ve got work to do.
+
Thursday, July 14, 2011
5 WR's to target late in 2011
The 2010 season showed a few wide receivers who may have bright futures as solid fantasy contributors, each of which will have a low-risk cost on draft day and should be targeted late in your draft.
- Josh Morgan - SF
I'll admit I had some hopes for more production from Morgan in 2010 after some promising numbers in 2009 (52 rec, 527 yards, 3 TD's). A slow start to the season. On the positive side, he did improve his YPG (from 32.9 to 43.6) and his total yards from his 2009 total to 698. He's not much of a red zone target (just 8 TD's in 44 career games), but a lot of that could have more to do with Gore/Davis taking most of those targets. A new coach and philosophy geared towards offense from Jim Harbaugh could see Morgan take a greater step forward in his fourth season.
Production Prediction - 65 REC, 800 YDS, 5 TD
- Davone Bess - MIA
Brandon Marshall didn't really have the impact most anticipated in 2010 and the Dolphins offense was rewarded with an increase in production from Bess. So far in his 3 seasons his offensive production has improved each year as the Miami offense gets him more involved. Despite his small stature (5'10", 190 lbs.) he hauled in 79 catches for 820 yards and scored 5 touchdowns. His career 10.2 YPC gives him the profile of a possession receiver, which is just fine if Marshall begins seeing more downfield looks. He cracked the 100 yard mark just once (6 REC, 111 YDS vs. OAK in Week 12) and the Dolphins had weeks of offensive inconsistency, so it could be tough for Bess to really increase his numbers, but another season of similar stats would certainly be easy for owners to swallow.
Production Prediction - 85 REC, 835 YDS, 6 TD
- Earl Bennett - CHI
Outside of Johnny Knox, the Bears receivers were at the mercy of Jay Cutler's inconsistency. Bennett's numbers took a hit after a good 2009 and after getting some hype as a preseason sleeper pick. I'm still a believer in Bennett, as his previous chemistry with Cutler at Vanderbilt showed later in the 2010 season when Cutler was feeding him the ball (See: Weeks 12-13). If his 2011 returns are closer to 2009 he'll be a good backend pick.
Production Prediction - 55 REC, 750 YDS, 4 TD
- Mike Thomas - JAX
People will remember Thomas' 2010 season for his Hail Mary winner against Houston and rightfully so because it rocked. Even with the Jaguars passing woes popping up here and there, Thomas maintained a solid season of 66 REC, 820 YDS, and 4 TD's, leading the Jaguars YDS and REC. He's only 5'8", so expecting his YPC to increase from 12.4 might not be smart as he fits the possession receiver mold for Jacksonville. He's more Wes Welker than Steve Smith, but with Mike Sims-Walker now searching for a new team, the Jags will have to find Thomas more often to win ball games.
Production Prediction - 85 REC, 975 YDS, 7 TD
- Brandon Tate - NE
When the Patriots traded deep threat Randy Moss in Week 5 my mouth began to water at the prospect of Tate's increased workload. I made the add in all my fantasy leagues and was rewarded with just 4 REC, 104 YDS and a TD in the 3 games after the Moss trade. His season line - 24 REC, 432 YDS, 3 TD was respectable for a WR in his first year. His 18 YPC average looks nice and would look even better if Brady could find him downfield more often. Tate doesn't wow you with his 6'1" frame but he does have the wheels to get himself open against defenders. Deion Branch still stands in his way as the primary deep threat, but an uptick in production seems like a given with the way Brady likes to spread the ball to his pass-catchers.
Production Prediction - 45 REC, 655 YDS, 7 TD
- Josh Morgan - SF
I'll admit I had some hopes for more production from Morgan in 2010 after some promising numbers in 2009 (52 rec, 527 yards, 3 TD's). A slow start to the season. On the positive side, he did improve his YPG (from 32.9 to 43.6) and his total yards from his 2009 total to 698. He's not much of a red zone target (just 8 TD's in 44 career games), but a lot of that could have more to do with Gore/Davis taking most of those targets. A new coach and philosophy geared towards offense from Jim Harbaugh could see Morgan take a greater step forward in his fourth season.
Production Prediction - 65 REC, 800 YDS, 5 TD
- Davone Bess - MIA
Brandon Marshall didn't really have the impact most anticipated in 2010 and the Dolphins offense was rewarded with an increase in production from Bess. So far in his 3 seasons his offensive production has improved each year as the Miami offense gets him more involved. Despite his small stature (5'10", 190 lbs.) he hauled in 79 catches for 820 yards and scored 5 touchdowns. His career 10.2 YPC gives him the profile of a possession receiver, which is just fine if Marshall begins seeing more downfield looks. He cracked the 100 yard mark just once (6 REC, 111 YDS vs. OAK in Week 12) and the Dolphins had weeks of offensive inconsistency, so it could be tough for Bess to really increase his numbers, but another season of similar stats would certainly be easy for owners to swallow.
Production Prediction - 85 REC, 835 YDS, 6 TD
- Earl Bennett - CHI
Outside of Johnny Knox, the Bears receivers were at the mercy of Jay Cutler's inconsistency. Bennett's numbers took a hit after a good 2009 and after getting some hype as a preseason sleeper pick. I'm still a believer in Bennett, as his previous chemistry with Cutler at Vanderbilt showed later in the 2010 season when Cutler was feeding him the ball (See: Weeks 12-13). If his 2011 returns are closer to 2009 he'll be a good backend pick.
Production Prediction - 55 REC, 750 YDS, 4 TD
- Mike Thomas - JAX
People will remember Thomas' 2010 season for his Hail Mary winner against Houston and rightfully so because it rocked. Even with the Jaguars passing woes popping up here and there, Thomas maintained a solid season of 66 REC, 820 YDS, and 4 TD's, leading the Jaguars YDS and REC. He's only 5'8", so expecting his YPC to increase from 12.4 might not be smart as he fits the possession receiver mold for Jacksonville. He's more Wes Welker than Steve Smith, but with Mike Sims-Walker now searching for a new team, the Jags will have to find Thomas more often to win ball games.
Production Prediction - 85 REC, 975 YDS, 7 TD
- Brandon Tate - NE
When the Patriots traded deep threat Randy Moss in Week 5 my mouth began to water at the prospect of Tate's increased workload. I made the add in all my fantasy leagues and was rewarded with just 4 REC, 104 YDS and a TD in the 3 games after the Moss trade. His season line - 24 REC, 432 YDS, 3 TD was respectable for a WR in his first year. His 18 YPC average looks nice and would look even better if Brady could find him downfield more often. Tate doesn't wow you with his 6'1" frame but he does have the wheels to get himself open against defenders. Deion Branch still stands in his way as the primary deep threat, but an uptick in production seems like a given with the way Brady likes to spread the ball to his pass-catchers.
Production Prediction - 45 REC, 655 YDS, 7 TD
Monday, June 27, 2011
1B-Stud Again?
Carlos Pena was owned in just 60% of Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball leagues at the start of this week.
Say what you want about his batting average but that seems criminally low for a guy who is showing up after a wretched spring where he struggled with a thumb injury and wasn't getting consistent at-bats.
He's now up to 64% (after a 2-HR game against the Rockies) today, and has posted this line since May 1st: 43/171 (.251), .366 OBP, 16 HR, 38 RBI, 31 BB, and 33 R in those 51 games. Not bad for a guy who had ZERO HR's and just 5 RBI's in 63 AB in April.
Make the Add people.
Say what you want about his batting average but that seems criminally low for a guy who is showing up after a wretched spring where he struggled with a thumb injury and wasn't getting consistent at-bats.
He's now up to 64% (after a 2-HR game against the Rockies) today, and has posted this line since May 1st: 43/171 (.251), .366 OBP, 16 HR, 38 RBI, 31 BB, and 33 R in those 51 games. Not bad for a guy who had ZERO HR's and just 5 RBI's in 63 AB in April.
Make the Add people.
Selling Pujols? Yup.
I'm very happy with the current state of my team.
Would it be nice to keep Albert Pujols as a late season possible addition at 3B (Especially a position currently held by Peralta/Polanco)? Duuuuh, of course. The injury kind of sours my plan for my hitters (To use a hot Pujols to help HanRam ease back into my lineup).
After my 10-3 throttling of Dave Cavanagh's first place Lights and Sirens squad, and the subsequent takeover of 1st for myself. The 4/5 seed could be a deadly opponent (See: Spliffs, Cliffs and TSA. Hell Downs too.)
I've decided I can make my run without the help of stalwart slugger Albert Pujols. Very few teams/owners can legitimately make this claim. In return and instant boost to my pitching staff. The Johan Santana Experiment is over (Waiver Wire) and thus I want to try something else. That something is getting Tim Lincecum or Clayton Kershaw.
Sans Pujols, my hitters will be:
- Hanley Ramirez
- Josh Hamilton
- Mike Stanton
- Ben Zobrist
- Howie Kendrick
- B.J. Upton
- Carlos Pena
- Carlos Santana
- Jhonny Peralta
- Placido Polanco
- Geovany Soto
- Ian Desmond
That's without Pujols mind you.
Good enough to win stats with this pitching staff behind it?
- Felix Hernandez
- Tim Lincecum / Clayton Kershaw
- David Price
- Yovani Gallardo
- Michael Pineda
- Wandy Rodriguez
- Johnny Cueto
- Scott Baker
- Jonathan Sanchez
- Justin Masterson
- Cory Luebke (Spot-starter for now)
Now that I'm in first, I'm looking to fully be able to dominate the pitching stats down the stretch (It takes 8 of the 15 categories in our league too), even if it comes at the expense of my hitters in AUG/SEPT in the playoffs. I think the quality of my other hitters (Especially at 1B - Pena / Zobrist / Kendrick / Santana) will more than offset the loss of Sir Albert.
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